Conceptual Model of Intelligent Decision Support System Based on Naturalistic Decision Theory for Reservoir Operation during Emergency Situation

Emergency situation required fast and accurate decision as every decision is very critical to save human lives. Naturally, during this situation humans made decision based on their past experiences by which their nerves and brain system will perceive the situation and mapped with their experiences to produce action. This naturalistic decision making approach has been one of the attention in emergency management research. In this paper a conceptual model of Intelligent Decision Support System for reservoir operation during emergency situation is proposed. This model simulates human decision based on three models: situation assessment, expectancy forecasting, and decision modeling. Situation assessment is to extract the temporal data from the hydrological and operational databases. This data will be used in the forecasting module, to forecast the future event. The decision module will utilized the temporal and the forecasted data to produce the final decision. Artificial intelligence techniques are utilized in every model. The model is expected to assist reservoir operator in making decision during emergency situation; typically during heavy rainfall when early and fast decision is required to release the reservoir water in order to leave enough space for incoming water and to release the water in the save carrying capacity of the downstream channel. Thus avoiding flood in downstream areas.